Monthly Archives: November 2011

Week 10 stat list update


Riley Nelson‘s 56 passing yards vs. Idaho were enough to pass up Eldon ‘The Phantom’ Fortie for 27th in career passing at BYU.


Last week Nelson passed up Jake Heaps in passing for the season. This week, Heaps passed up Nelson.


It was a bad week for the Phantom. JJ DiLuigi passed him to move into 11th in career rushing yards.


One catch was enough to move McKay Jacobson into a tie with Jay Miller for 25th.

JJ DiLuigi has the same number of receptions in his career (86) as Luke Staley (and Daniel Coats, and Scott Pettis).


Jacobson moved up one spot to 17th, ahead of Jonny Harline.


Jordan Pendleton finished his career in the 111th spot for career tackles at BYU with 130.


Jake Heaps moved in to 16th place, passing Marc Lyons.


So far, the team is averaging 1.3 interceptions per game. That would be the highest average since 2006.


Heaps’ rating moved up a bit from 110.3 to 112.7, Nelson’s also increased from 147.7 to 148.6. Heaps’ career rating compares with Jason Beck and Bret Engemann. Nelson’s is similar to Robbie Bosco and John Walsh.


Nelson’s rating for 2011 (159.7) is identical to Brandon Doman‘s rating in 2001.


A good thumping of Idaho lifted BYU’s points-per-game margin from +3.6 to +6.7.


If Justin Sorensen can go three more games without missing an extra point he will have the BYU record from most PATs without a miss in a season.

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Analysis of TE Use in 2011

One of the topics of discussion during the 2010 season and subsequent offseason was the dropoff in production at TE — a position that has consistently been a very productive area for BYU over the years. In 2010, BYU TEs registered 34 receptions for a total of 451 yards. BYU QBs completed a total of 243 passes in 2010, so the 34 receptions represents 14% of all completions last year.

In 2011, the productivity has improved, but still isn’t on par with recent historical norms. In 9 games, BYU TEs have 40 receptions for 474 yards and have caught 22.5% (40 of 178) of all completions. However, a closer look shows that the TE production has dropped off since Riley Nelson took over as QB. Jake Heaps completed 25.0% (27 of 108) of his passes to TEs compared to Riley Nelson’s 18.6% (13 of 70).  Here is a breakdown by game for each QB:

Jake Heaps

Opp Rec Yds
Miss 4 44
Texas 7 88
Utah 5 64
UCF 5 49
USU 5 41
ISU 1 10
Totals 27 296

Riley Nelson

Opp Rec Yds
Utah 1 12
USU 3 27
SJSU 4 82
OSU 3 30
ISU 1 18
TCU 1 9
Totals 13 178

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Pass Efficiency Differential Wins Championships

Yesterday’s blog touched on the importance of offensive pass efficiency and its effect on wins and losses.  The power of the pass efficiency statistic is increased by taking the difference between a team’s offensive and defensive pass efficiency.  This is called the Pass Efficiency Differential (PED).  The top 6 teams in this week’s AP Top 25 are all in the top 10 nationally in PED.

AP Rank Team PED Rank
1 LSU 4
2 Oklahoma St. 10
3 Stanford 8
4 Alabama 6
5 Boise St. 2
6 Oregon 9


This is far from a fluky result. Note the PED rankings of the national champions since 2000.

Season Champion PED Rank
2000 Oklahoma 6
2001 Miami (FL) 2
2002 Ohio State 12
2003 LSU 3
2004 USC 4
2005 Texas 1
2006 Florida 6
2007 LSU 8
2008 Florida 2
2009 Alabama 5
2010 Auburn 7
Average 5.1

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Pass Efficiency: The Key To Victory

Pass efficiency is an enigmatic formula that tries to combine various statistical measures into a meaningful whole. The formula is:

Pass Efficiency = Completion% + (8.4 * YdsPerAttempt) + (330 * TDsPerAttempt) – (200 * INTsPerAttempt)

On average, completion percentage and yards per attempt account for 93% of the total pass efficiency measure.  If teams can maximize these aspects of their passing game, they will win a very high percentage of the time.  For example, since 2001, BYU is 51-2 in games where they completed at least 62% of their passes and averaged at least 7.4 yards per attempt, as shown below:

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Week 9 stat list update

Once again, with a young team, there isn’t a lot of movement near the top of the stat lists right now. I’ll try to avoid mentioning the overly obscure, like Michael Alisa at No. 83 in career rushing ahead of Ken Call and Kent Oborn.


For the first time this season, Riley Nelson has more passing yards that Jake Heaps.


Nelson now has more than the 100 attempts needed to show up on the season rating list. His rating for this year dropped from 174.5 to — between Brandon Doman  ’01 and Max Hall ’08.


Matt Marshall’s career passer rating took a hit. With a single incomplete pass, his rating dropped from 188.2 to 125.5.


With four games left, JJ DiLuigi needs 326 yards to bump Brian McKenzie out of the top 10 in career rushing.


Nelson passes Doman for third in QB rushing.


Nelson has the 6th most rushing yards for a QB in a season, passing Virgil Carter ’66


In his Sophomore year, Hoffman is already 54th in career receiving yards, passing Jeff Frandsen, Rod Wilkerson, Tyler Anderson, Toby Christensen and Matt Allen.


BYU’s scoring margin dropped from +5.3 to +3.6.


The team is averaging 5.7 penalties for 48.0 yards per game. The only season in the past 35 years with fewer penalties or yards is 2010.

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